In an age of information where seemingly every fan has their take on what metrics and advanced stats make their favorite player better than yours, the information trickle-down has never seemed to reach the front offices of Colorado. Now, of course, the Rockies do have an analytics department, and they certainly have more than competent executives making baseball decisions, but just not quite as well as other ones do. The Rockies tend to be in this perpetual state of catching up to the other teams in baseball. While others have entire “labs” dedicated to finding what edge a team can get out of a pitcher to make them the most effective, Colorado was known for sticking to their guns with sinker/slider pitchers that were favorable to Coors Field, and never venturing too much further than that.
But looking around the league, it’s obvious a sinker/slider combo won’t cut it anymore. This is a time in which Jhoan Duran throws a 101 mph split-finger, more pitchers master the sweeper every year, and velocity and pitch tunneling are the new laws that govern pitching development. Pitching (and hitting) is this constantly evolving thing that is always revealing some new tweak or hack that can make the difference between making a quality or just an average player. That’s why there’s always been a general sort of confusion as to why the Rockies seem content with a below-average quality of baseball that’s not trying to find new ideas to dig them out of their hole.
But the tides are shifting in small but momentous ways for this team where any type of change is welcome from their current baseball philosophy. Rockies GM Bill Schmidt made interesting comments at the end of the 2023 season, the first 100-loss season in Colorado history, observing the team is, “not where we need to be by any means” and adding in their need for pitching depth accumulation and re-thinking the types of pitchers they’re targeting. The willingness for change in Schmidt’s comments was eye-catching for an organization that is usually so rooted and reluctant to change in any major ways. But admitting is the first step, and the Rockies have done that, so what’s come after?
The baseball season is nearing its end and it should come as no surprise Colorado sits last in the competitive NL West. The team went into the season riddled with holes and any fan with knowledge of how rebuilding cycles work could tell you it would be a bit before the Rockies were going to show a semblance of quality again. Yet, there’s something quietly encouraging about these Rockies that wasn’t present in years before – there’s a youth movement.
Leading the charge are two beacons of hope in Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle. Tovar, a swing-happy yet powerful shortstop with smooth defensive skills is a franchise player the team has already acknowledged with a seven-year extension. His power and glove at a premium position in shortstop is one of the first ingredients in the massive concoction when it comes to building a winning ballclub. Even if it’s just a small step, it’s a step in the right direction and one of the first bright spots on the roster.
Next, is Brenton Doyle. Doyle has some of the most incredible defensive skills in all of baseball and is slotting in at another valuable position in centerfield, especially because of Coors’ vast outfield space. Taking a peek at his defensive metrics on Savant will show a range and sprint speed in the upper echelon of center fielders besting the likes of stars Julio Rodriguez and Jarren Duran. His bat has holes but his approach for maximizing contact in the sweet spot zone of the bat gives him considerable pop. This is one of the first signs of a switch to a more modern age thinking for Colorado, as the trend in baseball recently has put such a prominent importance on center field defense over aptitude with the bat, seeing the position is just too valuable to leak runs from. Knowing the Rockies are developing their own type of modern mold-fitting players should be incredibly encouraging for fans of the team as now the next steps will be developing more modern-age players at other positions too.
Tovar and Doyle in a sense represent hope for a team that was all too happy only a couple of years ago playing replacement-level players with almost no ceiling to project for at these same positions. Now, that trend is being bucked. They could be the first in line to step up for what’s this next Colorado Rockies competitive core followed by others on the farm making big waves.
That farm system is what is the biggest turnaround amid the rebuild. Schmidt noted the lack of depth as the biggest detriment to the team and he’s not wrong in the slightest. Depth is ultimately the deciding factor in the difference between teams that can last the whole 162-game season even with injuries to regulars and one that cannot replace the production of injured regulars. Baseball works in such a way that individual players are just not valuable enough to carry a team single-handedly. The Rockies though have slowly been building their system up to the point where they now boast six top 100 prospects in MLB.com’s most recent top 100 update.
A closer look into this new stockpile of talent reveals a closer timeline to success than most would think.
The 2024 Draft provided Colorado with the biggest boon to their rebuild yet, and that came in the form of collegiate slugger, Charlie Condon. Perhaps best known for shattering SEC records with his herculean home run pace he showcased at Georgia, Condon and his 70-grade power has the potential to lift him to incredible heights at the high altitude of Coors Field. The Rockies have a track record of developing hitters brilliantly and with how advanced his hit tool is coming out of the tough-as-nails SEC, his MLB readiness makes him comparable to last year’s Langford coming out of the draft. Much like Langford, he doesn’t possess a natural position well-suited for, but left field should do him just fine. Condon has such an exciting factor about him because he has much more of a deciding trajectory for how the next Rockies core will shape up to be. A potential 40 home run hitter, hitting at MVP caliber level in the middle of the order is the type of player that can forever alter franchises and Condon’s slugging profile could provide that big step forward.
Chase Dollander will be the other deciding factor in how Colorado shapes up in the next generation. While the savviest of pitching tech-oriented teams can get the most out of a waiver claim reliever, Colorado rather tends to somehow get the least out of burgeoning pitching talent. Yet, those are reputations and reputations can change. Dollander would be the perfect start to flip that narrative. And lately, Dollander’s ascent through the minors has been torrid. His profiles and scouting reports show similar comparisons to many rising frontline starters. A solid three-pitch mix consisting of a power fastball topping at 99 paired with a slider and curve complimenting each other well gives Dollander a mighty strikeout ability. His fourth, a changeup that needs tinkering is there for more variability to batters, yet his first year in pro ball has displayed awesome swing-and-miss stuff that’s trending in the right direction. He’s currently pitching to a 2.47 ERA across 102 innings split between high A and double-A, putting him on track to be close to big league ready by the time he’ll be 23. This extremely exciting arm was highly regarded in the ‘23 draft, and many opinions from around the league were skeptical Colorado would be the best fit for him. So far, those disputes have been put to bed by Dollander’s outstanding beginning, and the Schmidt administration will be hoping they have an ace on their hands.
The next names to focus on will be a batch of outfielders all with their unique abilities and timelines that separate themselves from one another, yet could all find themselves playing in the same outfield one day.
Jordan Beck, a 23-year-old outfielder drafted 38th overall in 2022 has developed beautifully since the Rockies took a chance on him, yet is also a divisive name among the scouting community. Some see the raw power and athleticism he possesses as the defining feature that could lift him to all-star heights yet others view his swing-happy need to always crush the ball as a hindrance. When it comes to prospects like Beck who feature such a wide range of variability with how his future could shape up due to the nature of power-reliant hitters, opinions do tend to be polarizing. Yet, the same narrative was talked about with hitters like Brent Rooker with countless teams dropping the hit first, raw power slugger before finally the right team got the most out of him. The Rockies ought to give him regular playing time. His torching of Triple-A this season earned him a promotion to the major league squad followed by usual rookie struggles and a subsequent injury but it’s no reason to panic. His plus speed will allow him to handle every outfield position and the monster power that has yet to be tapped at the major league level should excite the future of Rockies baseball where raw power plays very much so in the confines of Coors Field.
Zac Veen has felt his share of ups and downs in his now four-year minor league career. Arguably the best high school hitter from his draft class, Veen had lofty expectations placed on him. His first year in A-ball showed a glimpse of something magnificent. A toolsy 19-year-old at the time, Veen was showcasing every bit of what made him so appealing. Raw power that was translating to game power, speed that racked up extra-base hits, and above-average defense placed him squarely in the MLB top 100 prospect list and many expected him to stay there or rise the ranks. But glaring underlying issues soon started to be exploited by opposing pitchers. A long swing that had holes was being artfully mastered by opposing pitching staffs, only worsened by wrist injuries had Veen struggling mightily for two full pro seasons. His minor league rock bottom was dipping below the Mendoza line multiple times and being disregarded almost completely as a potential star talent by many. And he most likely won’t be a star, but lofty ceilings are incredibly difficult to reach and Veen can still be a productive regular in his own right. Bridging the gap from his raw to game power has shown to be a challenge and one of the biggest criticisms of his game, yet Veen has climbed his way up from the lows of the past two seasons with a bounceback in 2024, seeing an improvement though the numbers come from a smaller sample size as well as the Double-A level. Still, the terror he causes on the basepaths and his ability to scope out extra-base hits at a high level has set Veen up for regular playing time very soon.
Yanquiel Fernandez is easy to dream on. A smooth left-handed swing that contains seemingly effortless power, Fernandez follows the trend of toolsy outfielders with explosive pop yet with so much swing and miss, the red flags are massive. Reminiscent of Javier Baez or Jesus Sanchez with how much thunder there is in his bat but also the holes in his zone pitchers know how to exploit, Fernandez and his exit velocity numbers should ensure a starting job in the future Colorado outfield. Bat speed and exit velocities are what front offices salivate over these days as possession of explosive tools combined with proper training and technique from seasoned coaches have the potential to mold the next modern slugger. He’s the prototypical alluring prospect any team would love to have but also the type of prospect who could easily fizzle out if he doesn’t learn how to cover the entirety of the zone. At only 21, the Rockies are moving him fast. He’s already reached Triple-A after handling Double-A with ease this season and it’s possible the young Fernandez could be mashing no doubters in Denver sooner than expected.
There’s a commonality with these three outfielders, and that’s boom or bust potential. Other organizations such as the Giants or Twins build their farm systems in ways to ensure more quality depth overall than banking on a potential star ascending or flaming out. Sometimes this teambuilding works in the case of Minnesota who can build quietly strong teams with a rock solid foundation year to year but has also shown to fail with the Giants as sometimes a star-level talent would be all they need for a push over the .500 line. Hopefully, for the Bill Schmidt regime, this team-building strategy can work out. Beck, Veen, and Fernandez boast dazzling power, lofty prospect statuses, and open playing time circumstances to capitalize on the most possible out of them. This is where it is to be seen whether the new guard in charge can implement the development programs to tap into that promise aforementioned.
Depth is key and it will be needed in shaping this upcoming Rockie core. Drew Romo and Hunter Goodman provide excellent depth at the catching position. Romo and his sterling defensive reputation have faltered in recent seasons, though his receiving abilities and excellent pop time will ensure him at least a backup job, whereas Goodman’s 70-grade power will take him far on the roster despite a clear defensive home at the catching position. Adael Amador is an infield prospect evaluators adore due to his excellent plate discipline and ability to extend at-bats. But a profile that revolves around slap-and-gap power and comparing to Adam Frazier leaves much to be desired. Finally, Brody Brecht is an intriguing name to keep an eye on this system. This thought-to-be first-round talent in the most recent draft fell to Colorado in the Competetive Balance Round and he might leave many teams wondering why they passed up on him. A fastball that can touch 101 mph and a deGrom-like 91 mph slider show flashes of an incredibly high-ceiling frontline pitcher or closer. But the tale of Riley Pint is all too familiar with Rockies fans and if he can’t get his walks under control, this could be very much of the same story.
This amount of potential all-star talent from Condon to Brecht is one of the first times in a while that the dark present is starting to get a bit brighter. Tovar and Doyle were the first to assert themselves as stalwarts and it’ll be up to this next crop to put the finishing touches on a potential sleeping giant.
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