Minnesota Twins Cut Costs, Cut Corners, Collapsed

At the beginning of September, the Minnesota Twins had a playoff spot all but locked up. In the weeks that followed, the team completely collapsed. Any hope remaining from their promising 2023 season died. But a closer look might suggest they were on life support all along.

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Despite a slow start, the Twins were baseball’s hottest team for nearly four months straight. Between April 22 and August 17 the team had a 63-40 record, playing at a 99-win pace. They narrowed Cleveland’s division lead to just 2.0 games, and set the stage for a showdown.

On September 2, the Twins controlled the second Wild Card spot, 1.0 game ahead of Kansas City and 5.0 ahead of Detroit. They also owned the tiebreakers against both teams, so Fangraphs had Minnesota’s playoff odds at 95.8%. As long as the team didn’t fall apart they’d punch their ticket to October in the coming days.

In the four weeks that followed, the Twins lost 18 of their final 25 games. Meanwhile the Tigers leapfrogged them, winning 16 of their final 23, and clinched a Wild Card berth. Credit to Detroit where it’s due, but the 2024 Minnesota Twins deserved to miss the postseason.

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Risk/Reward Ratio

Surprising as this sudden and total collapse may be, the dominos began falling before the season started. Fresh off the team’s first playoff series win since 2003, ownership announced plans to significantly cut payroll. In 2024 player payroll was reduced from a franchise high $158MM to $130MM.

The decision handcuffed the front office, which had Sonny Gray-sized and eventually Jorge Polanco-sized holes to fill on the roster. Without much room for flexibility in the budget, the offseason was quiet. Holes were filled by internal depth and modest signings, testing their depth early.

Ownership tightened their purse strings again at the trade deadline, while the Twins were atop the Wild Card standings and 5.5 games behind the Guardians. They made no meaningful moves, leaving themselves vulnerable to further injuries or regression. Likely both.

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Newton’s Third Law of Motion

Of the Twins’ top performers by WAR, three of the top five landed on the injured list by August 17. A second bout of plantar fasciitis—in the opposite foot now—forced Carlos Correa out from July 20 to September 14. Joe Ryan’s excellent season ended August 9 due to a shoulder strain in his throwing arm. And hip inflammation put Byron Buxton on the shelf from August 15 to September 12.

Once all three players hit the IL, the team almost immediately began to fall apart. At that time the team was 15 games above .500, but by the time Buxton and Correa returned it was too late. The Twins were nine games above .500 and fading. The two stars picked up where they left off, but the team around them “ran out of gas.“

Hitting

Pitching

Although Buxton (139 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR) and Correa (172 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR) were productive down the stretch, the team was trending in the wrong direction. What was maybe a top-five offense through their four-month run regressed hard in crunch time. And pitching, though not exactly elite, was just as bad down the stretch.

No one embodies this slump as much as starting third baseman, Royce Lewis. Since the hot stretch, the pop in his bat disappeared. He finished out the year with a 32 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR, and only a single home run. He struck out 37 times while only walking eight, putting up a .182/.224/.250 triple slash in his final 37 games.  

Injuries challenge every team, but the holes left by the two highest-paid players and this year’s best pitcher were only magnified by the reluctance to strengthen their surrounding cast. But beyond the injuries, was this roster ever really the best team in baseball?

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Second Law of Thermodynamics

Despite their record, it was clear the 2024 Minnesota Twins were never the best team in baseball at any point. The league’s hottest team for four months, sure, but even the cracks were showing.

The Twins played the (historic) White Sox 13 times, winning 12, and outscoring Chicago 85-45. All 13 contests were played between April 22 and August 17, incidentally inflating Minnesota’s record during their hot streak. At the surface, it seems like a good team manhandling an awful one, but that might be giving the Twins too much credit.

Against the rest of the league Minnesota was 70-79. Against teams that finished the year above .500, they were 36-56. And against teams that made it to the playoffs, they were 27-49. Winning teams consistently beat the Twins the way the Twins consistently beat the White Sox. In other words, the Twins were in a tier beneath the true playoff contenders all season, not just the home stretch.

To be frank, the Twins didn’t truly belong in the playoff conversation. Their 95.8% playoff odds on September 2 set up a devastating—but likely inevitable—collapse. The season was officially laid to rest in September, but it’s clear they were on borrowed time from the beginning.

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If the 2024 Minnesota Twins could simply maintain a .500 record through the final month of the season, they’d have been playing Wild Card games. Instead, they’ll look ahead to next season, and what they’ll see is they’re falling behind in their own division.

In just a season, the Guardians, Tigers, and Royals passed the Twins in the AL Central standings, and look to improve further next year. While the competitive windows are opening for them, the Twins have to wonder if theirs is closing. President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey and Manager Rocco Baldelli will have another chance in 2025, but if they can’t turn it around, expect it to be their last.

Featured Photo: @Twins on X