The Philadelphia Phillies will have a new-look outfield in 2026 and Justin Crawford, one of the organization’s top-five prospects, will be part of it. Crawford, barring something unforeseen, will be the Phillies’ center fielder on Opening Day.
Crawford comes with some shine because of his status in the Phillies’ farm system. But there are red flags in the former first-round pick’s profile. And it has evaluators all over the place in terms of what they think Crawford will ultimately become in the majors.
The red flags that surround Crawford are mostly with his offensive game. There are questions about his defense, too. Some people think, at least right now, he’s better suited for left field rather than center. But what really gives pause is Crawford’s batted ball profile.
In his three full seasons in the minor leagues, Crawford has never posted a ground ball rate below 55%. Ground balls are not what hitters should be searching for. Since 2015, hitters in the big leagues have a .239 batting average and .260 slugging percentage on grounders, according to Fangraphs.
But for Crawford, putting the ball on the ground hasn’t been a problem. He’s a career .322/.385/.446 hitter in the minors; he’s never truly struggled to produce. It’s one of the reasons the Phillies started Crawford at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last season. They wanted to continue to challenge him. As one of the International League’s youngest players, he stepped up; Crawford batted .334 with a .863 OPS.
Because of his success, there were talks of Crawford debuting with the Phillies last summer. But when the club acquired Harrison Bader from the Minnesota Twins at the trade deadline, the path for Crawford to get regular playing time was blocked, so he stayed at Triple A.
Now, Crawford will have a shot in the majors. But it will likely come with growing pains.
Since 2015, there have been 100 qualified hitters to have a 55% or higher ground ball rate in a single season in MLB, according to Fangraphs. Of those players, only 33 posted a 100 wRC+ or higher.
That’s not an exact science. It doesn’t predetermine that Crawford will not be successful. But it is a snapshot into how hard it is to be a league-average hitter in the majors when putting the ball on the ground a lot.
One thing that helps Crawford is his speed; it’s one of his best tools. The assumption is that when Crawford does make contact — something he does plenty — a lot of it will be gobbled up for outs in the majors. Defense at the highest level of baseball is much better than in the minor leagues, so it’s a fair point. But Crawford can fly, and it should give him an advantage.
Crawford putting the ball in play on the ground could put pressure on opposing defenses. Especially because he tends to spray the ball all over the field; defenses may have to play him straight up for the most part. Crawford will likely collect hits most players wouldn’t be able to. Whether it comes on what appears to be a routine grounder or a high chopper up the third base line, anything Crawford puts in play could be a hit.
While there are concerns over what his 2026 season and future will look like, Crawford’s an unfinished product. At 22 years old, he’ll be one of the younger players in the majors this year. There’s plenty of room for him to grow and develop as a hitter and a human. There’s a thought that as he matures, he’ll get stronger, be able to control his body more and command the barrel of the bat better to drive the ball in the air more. But it’ll take time to get there.
For now, the Phillies will only need him to flash signs that he belongs in the major leagues. There will be times where it looks pretty; at others, it won’t. But on a team filled with stars and veterans, Crawford is only expected and needed to contribute this year while he and the Phillies learn how to make him a productive major leaguer.
