Paul Skenes. Corbin Carroll. Ronald Acuña Jr. These are some of the names who have captured the National League Rookie of the Year Award in recent years, only to become superstars of our game. With teams counting on exciting young prospects more and more, we are almost guaranteed to see significant contributors out of the 2026 rookie class.
Braves catcher Drake Baldwin took home the hardware last year, edging out starter Cade Horton of the Cubs. Let’s meet this year’s field and predict who will receive the honor:
Nolan McLean – RHP, New York Mets
Nicknamed “Cowboy Ohtani” because of his two-way prowess at Oklahoma State (he was also a quarterback for their football team his freshman year), McLean can flat-out spin the baseball. His devilish curveball lands itself in the 100th percentile in terms of spin rate, per Baseball Savant. He yields several other wiffle ball-like pitches, including a sinker, four-seam fastball, sweeper, cutter, and changeup.
That impressive repertoire helped McLean produce extremely positive results in his brief big-league stint. His 2.06 ERA in 8 pressure-filled starts were a godsend for the disastrous 2025 Mets, and they’ll be counting on him in a big way in 2026, making him an attractive pick for the award.
As alluded to earlier, McLean hasn’t been a full-time pitcher for too long. His 113.2 innings last year (both minors and majors) account for 40% of his career total. To me, that signifies potential injury risk if the Mets must rely on him too much. Furthermore, the Orioles did fail him after a post-draft physical back in 2022, which allowed the Metros to pick him up in the 2023 draft, so concern is there.
Additionally, as pointed out by The Athletic’s Keith Law, pitchers don’t typically win this award. Over the last 25 years, pitchers have been named Rookie of the Year just 30% of the time. That doesn’t bode well for his chances.
Konnor Griffin – SS/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
In my mind, there is no doubt that Griffin is the most talented prospect since Mike Trout. While there were concerns about his bust potential when he was drafted 9th overall in 2024, he put those to rest with an insane debut season in the minors.
Griffin hit .333/.415/.527 across three minor-league levels last season, good enough for a 165 wRC+. Oh, he also stole 65 bases. On top of that, he figures to be a plus defender at shortstop, with the versatility to play center field if need be. The 19-year-old (he turns 20 in April) has legit five-tool potential and could be a real difference maker for the upstart Buccos in 2026.
While Griffin’s youth makes him all the more intriguing, it also could strike some concern. He only has 98 plate appearances above A-ball. We just don’t see guys make this kind of leap at this age. He very well could have a Bobby Witt Jr.-type rookie season, which would be decent for his age, but not great. If so, Griffin’s chances at winning the award are slim.
Also, we can’t rule out the Pirates in this equation. It takes two to tango, and Pirates ownership maybe be looking to squeeze an extra year of service time out of Griffin by holding him in the minor leagues. The Pirates are actually trying this year, and there is the ROY draft pick incentive, which is meant to deter this kind of behavior, but owner Bob Nutting is inevitable. And cheap. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Griffin in the minor leagues at the beginning of the year, even if he proves to be ready.
Bubba Chandler – RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chandler was another two-sport, two-way prospect like McLean. He was slated to be a Clemson Tiger before the Pirates lured him away from his commitment thanks to a $3 million dollar signing bonus back in 2021. The 23-year-old gave up on hitting in 2023 and has soared as a premiere pitching prospect ever since.
Chandler’s calling card is his fastball. The pitch is live, averaging around 98 miles per hour last season, and works best in the top of the zone. It was on full display during his big-league cup of coffee in 2025, where he pitched to a 4.02 ERA and 2.66 FIP. His clear athleticism should help sustain velocity over a full season’s workload, which should only improve his chances for the award.
Like most young pitchers with tantalizing stuff, Chandler will have to work on his command. He issued just four walks in 31.1 big-league innings last year, but command issues halted a potential call-up last June and he has experienced much of the same so far this spring.
Ultimately, it’s all mental with Chandler. The stuff will always be there. If he can control his emotions, he’ll have success very soon at the major-league level. Consistency is key with Chandler, as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if he has a very up-and-down rookie season.
JJ Wetherholt – SS/2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Once a candidate to go first in a stacked 2024 draft, Wetherholt ended up going two picks ahead of Griffin at 7th overall. In short, Wetherholt can swing it. He led all of college baseball with a .449 batting average (!) as a sophomore in 2023, and he has continued that pedigree so far in pro ball.
The West Virginia product slashed .306/.421/.510 in his first full season in pro ball, which ended at Triple-A. He doesn’t whiff (just a 14.7% K rate last year) and draws his fair share of walks (14.5%). He figures to slug enough when he gets to The Show, even if his max exit velocity of 107.6 miles per hour at Triple-A isn’t considered “top-shelf.” The 23-year-old stole 23 bags last year, as well, showcasing above average speed. Wetherholt can even hold his own at short, but won’t have to in the big leagues due to gold glover Masyn Winn. Overall, he is a very sound prospect.
Right now, it’s hard to come up with reasons why Wetherholt won’t win the award. He will have ample opportunity to show off the skills that make him a top prospect, especially on a Cardinals team that looks to be one of the worst in franchise history. He did have a nagging hamstring issue during his last year in college, so that is something to look out for here.
The former Mountaineer does consider any type of buzz around him to be “poison,” a joke dating back to his college days. While this isn’t a matter I consider often, this is baseball. Superstition cannot and will not be ignored.
Other names to watch: Mets OF Carson Benge, Reds INF Sal Stewart, Cubs DH Moises Ballesteros, and Phillies OF Justin Crawford (read up on him here).
My Pick
For me, it comes down to McLean and Wetherholt. While Griffin and Chandler arguably have the most upside, they are far too volatile as it stands right now. I would not be surprised if they gave the other two a run for their money, however.
McLean has MLB experience and success already, but it’s a gamble to bet on a young pitcher. He certainly has the stuff, but will his body hold up over the 162-game grind? It’s tough to tell, especially when he’ll be firing meaningful bullets in the World Baseball Classic for Team USA.
Wetherholt, while he maybe doesn’t carry any elite outlier tool, seemingly has no flaws in his game. He should also see plenty of time at second or third for the Cards in 2026, especially after the Brendan Donovan trade. That, combined with the skills that make up his high floor, gives him the nod. In my opinion, he will be the first Cardinal to win this honor since Albert Pujols in 2001.
