Last season, we saw the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz mash his way to American League Rookie of the Year honors and establish himself as one of the best first basemen in baseball. Who will follow him and win 2026 AL Rookie of the Year?
Let’s meet the unique class that features expensive newcomers to the league and talented prospects:
NPB Veterans
Munetaka Murakami – 1B/3B/DH, Chicago White Sox
Although once thought to be the offensive crown jewel of this year’s free-agent class (outside of Kyle Tucker), Murakami settled on a two-year, $34 million deal with the White Sox in December. This was enough to lure him away from Nippon Professional Baseball and the Tokyo Yakult Swallows.
The former NBP MVP and single-season home run leader (55 in 2022) is your prototypical modern slugger. Still just 26 years old, Murakami has big time power. In an injury plagued 2025, he hit 22 homers in 56 games. This, combined with a top end exit velocity of 116.5 MPH and a solid 14.3% walk rate, makes him a very intriguing player.
Murakami has a very poor hit tool, which is why he didn’t receive much buzz this offseason. He strikes out a ton, doing so at a 28.6% clip last year. In particular, he has a lot of trouble with spin and offspeed stuff, racking up a 40% whiff rate against pitches of that variety last year in NPB. He’s also a poor defender at third, which pigeonholes him at first base or DH.
Much was said about his struggles versus high velocity, as well. I believe the sample size was too small and he has quick enough hands to adjust. Luckily for him, he’ll have plenty of time to do so on the still rebuilding Sox.
Kazuma Okamoto – 3B/1B, Toronto Blue Jays
The Yomuri Giants star signed with the defending AL champs on a four-year, $60 million deal this January. Nicknamed “The Young General,” Okamoto looks to be a key cog for a Jays team looking to rebound after a devastating Game 7 loss in last year’s World Series.
Unlike his fellow countryman Murakami, Okamoto looks to more of a sure thing at the big league level. He has a plus hit tool, highlighted by his .327 average last season and a 11.3% strikeout rate (albeit in just 69 games).
The 29-year-old can hit for power, as well. He posted a slugging percentage of at least .469 in each of his eight seasons with the Giants. This is even more impressive when you consider he was playing in NPB’s “dead ball” environment the last few years. He is also sound defensively, as Okamoto should hold his own at third base thanks to his strong fundamentals, even if his range is questionable.
Overall, Okamoto doesn’t appear to have any huge flaws in his game. Yet, there is the element of the unknown with him. For every Ichiro, there is a Kazuo Matsui. I’m confident in Okamoto’s abilities and the spring results have been exceptional in a small sample size (267 wRC+ in just 16 plate appearances), but we’ll just have to wait and see if he will truly translate his promising ability stateside (or province-side, since he’ll be playing in Canada).
Tatsuya Imai – RHP, Houston Astros
The Seibu Lions ace inked an interesting three-year, $54 million deal with the Astros this past January, which could reach $63 million in total value by the end of the pact. The contract also includes opt-outs after the 2026 and 2027 seasons, essentially making it a “prove-it” deal.
A funky contract is fitting for a funky pitcher. Known for his competitiveness on the hill, Imai carries an explosive fastball that sits around 95-97 MPH and a gyro-slider that has a unique arm-side profile. Imai also carries a changeup, splitter, and curveball. He also throws from a low arm slot and features a deceptive delivery, which contributes to his success (1.92 ERA and 27.8% strikeout rate last season).
Imai does come with some risk, and that shows in his contract incentives. If Imai reaches the 100-inning threshold in his first two seasons of the deal, he could receive an additional $9 million in bonuses. To me, this signifies that he could carry some injury or reliever/workload risk, likely because of his short stature (Imai is listed at 5’11, 176 pounds) and high walk rates early in his career.
Nonetheless, the contract should keep Imai motivated to have a solid rookie season with the ‘Stros. If he can take the ball every five or six days and display an ace-level workload, the 27-year-old could be a true contender for the award.
The Prospects
Trey Yesavage – RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Yesavage is probably the favorite for the award right now, and it’s not hard to see why. The 22-year-old first round pick in 2024 became a star last October, baffling the game’s best hitters with his high release point and devastating 80-grade splitter/outlier fastball combination. He also features a quality slider, which allows him to divert from his usual north/south attack.
His meteoric rise to get there was impressive, as the 6’4 righty dominated all four minor league levels in his first season of pro ball. He struck out a whopping 41.1% of minor league batters in 2025, which led all pitchers with at least 90 minor league innings. Combine that with a .156 batting average against and a 2.52 FIP, and you’ve got an elite pitching prospect.
Yesavage does come with his fair share of concern. He’ll be starting the season on the injured list with a shoulder impingement. Yesavage will continue to throw while on the IL and the Blue Jays don’t seem to believe this will deter him for very long. It’s still worth monitoring, especially coming off his extended season last year.
Chase DeLauter – OF, Cleveland Guardians
DeLauter is an interesting case. When on the field, the James Madison product rakes. He features a tight and compact swing, which generates excellent exit velocities and hard hit rates. Last season, he walked as much as he struck out, showcasing an advanced approach at the plate. This skillset has culminated in a career wRC+ of 140.
However, injuries have been the 24-year-old’s kryptonite thus far in his career. Since being drafted 16th overall in 2022, he’s played just 140 games across three minor league seasons, never eclipsing the 60 game mark in a single season.
Durability (or lack thereof) is the only knock on DeLauter’s game, even if he isn’t amazing defensively. If he can stay on the field, he’ll be a vital piece for the offensively-challenged Guards, who ranked 28th in wRC+ (87) as a team in 2025.
Kevin McGonigle – SS/2B/3B, Detroit Tigers
As a Mets fan, describing someone as the “next Chase Utley” is terrifying, but that is the best way to characterize McGonigle. The Tigers were lucky enough to snag him with the 37th pick in 2023, after signing fellow top prospect Max Clark to a below slot deal at third overall.
Standing at 5′ 9″, McGonigle is a wizard with the bat in his hands, displaying an innate feel for hitting. He’s walked more than he’s struck out at every single level of the minors thus far, while also maintaining a 47% hard hit rate. Overall in his pro career, he’s slashed .308/.410/.512, good enough for a 157 wRC+. At just 21-years-old, that’ll play.
He doesn’t appear to have a glaring weakness in his game, which is rare to see from a player his age. Some could point to his .254 batting average in Double-A (or even his lack of experience above that level) last year as a fault, but his .230 BABIP signifies that he ran into some bad luck. Nobody is a sure thing, but McGonigle is pretty close.
McGonigle, somewhat surprisingly, is breaking camp with the Tigers. Based on the their roster construction, he should see most of his time at third. However, he could make his mark as the full-time shortstop in the Motor City relatively soon, especially if Javier Báez regresses from his comeback 2025 season. He has the potential to be a capable shortstop for the “Gritty Tigs,” but he is probably best suited for second base in the future.
McGonigle does have some injury concern. He’s missed time in both 2024 and 2025, due to a fractured right hamate bone and a right ankle sprain, respectively. The former Auburn commit isn’t as injury prone as DeLauter, but it’s still worth noting.
Carter Jensen – C/DH, Kansas City Royals
Jensen, a native of Kansas City, has been a nice developmental case for the often-depleted Royals farm system. Drafted in the third round in 2021, Jensen endured a slow start to his career. He eventually broke out in 2024 with an .809 OPS, before truly coming into his own last year.
His powerful left-handed stroke and 56% hard hit rate helped him achieve a 136 wRC+ across 111 games in Double A and Triple A. This success continued in his brief major league stint last September. In just 20 games, he slashed .300/.391/.500, showing Royals fans a promising glimpse into the future.
It may just come down to playing time for the 22-year-old. The Royals are loyal to Jensen’s idol, Salvador Perez, but his best days behind the dish are far behind him. Jensen’s athleticism, even if he figures to be just an average defender, makes him the best person for the job.
Nonetheless, Drake Baldwin was able to snag the National League Rookie of the Year Award last year in a similar predicament. All Jensen has to do is mash, and he’ll be a serious candidate for the honor.
Other prospects worth mentioning as candidates are Orioles C/1B Samuel Basallo, Orioles OF Dylan Beavers, Red Sox LHP Connelly Early, and Mariners INF Colt Emerson.
My Pick
I believe that all of these guys present a worthwhile case. Out of the Japanese vets, Okamoto seems the most likely, because of his high floor. Imai has ace-level stuff, but will he pitch enough? Murakami has incredible potential, but can he put together a quality start to his big league career? I’m not so sure.
As for the prospects, I’m skeptical of Yesavage. Pitchers are so erratic to begin with. They could get hurt, lose velocity, or be figured out in the blink of an eye. Yesavage’s spring injury could very well impact him throughout the year, even if it isn’t a major concern right now.
Jensen and DeLauter, while maybe not the biggest names, intrigue me. Jensen smashes the ball regularly and should get playing time if the Royals are serious about contending. With DeLauter’s injury history, you just can’t bank on a full season from him. He has all the potential in the world, but he just has to stay healthy.
McGonigle’s inclusion on Detroit’s Opening Day roster changes things a little bit. I didn’t anticipate that move, but I applaud the Tigers for doing so. There is definitely a scenario where the Pennsylvania native runs away with the award, but he is not a lock by any means. Like DeLauter, McGonigle hasn’t been able to evade the injury bug.
Ultimately, I’m going with Okamoto. He might not be the most exciting pick, but I value his experience, ability to slug, and make contact at a high rate. That combination is too good to pass up. He’s in a good situation in Toronto, and I also believe he has the right mindset to succeed in Major League Baseball. Should he win, he’ll be the first Japanese player to win AL ROY honors since Shohei Ohtani in 2018. That’s good company.
Check out Liam’s NL Rookie of the Year analysis and prediction here!
