Review of Pre-Season Award Predictions: MVP

How did I do on my predictions from 8 months ago?

Before the season started, I gave my award predictions for Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP. I’m going to take a brutal look back at these predictions and evaluate how they faired. Every award has 30 voters, so the votes are out of all the ballots. If you want to take a look back at my reasoning for these picks, you can find the original MVP article HERE.

National League Honorable Mentions:

Nolan Arenado — Rockies 3B

673 PA, .297/.374/.561, 38 HR, 104 RBI, 132 wRC+, 5 DRS, 5.7 fWAR

MVP Finish: 3rd

Votes Received: 3 2nd place, 8 3rd place, 9 4th place, 5 5th place, 2 6th place, 1 7th place

Joey Votto — Reds 1B

623 PA, .284/.417/.419, 12 HRs, 67 RBIs, 131 wRC+, 9 DRS, 3.5 fWAR

MVP Finish: N/A

Votes Received: N/A

National League Darkhorse:

Image result for marcell ozuna cardinals

Marcell Ozuna — Cardinals LF

628 PA, .280/.325/.433, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 106 wRC+, 8 DRS, 2.7 fWAR

MVP Finish: N/A

Votes Received: N/A

National League Pick:

Kris Bryant — Cubs 3B

457 PA, .272/.374/.460, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 125 wRC+, -4 DRS, 2.3 fWAR

MVP Finish: N/A

Votes Received: N/A

Actual NL Winner:

Christian Yelich – Brewers OF

651 PA, .326/.402/.598, 36 HR, 110 RBI, 166 wRC+, 4 DRS, 7.6 fWAR

MVP Finish: 1st

Votes Received: 29 1st place, 1 2nd place


I whiffed on most of my picks in this section. Arenado had another stellar year at the plate and was basically the only pick I got right here. Both Ozuna and Bryant battled shoulder injuries this season, hindering their performance at the plate and in the field. Ozuna didn’t perform as he did in 2017, but I expect a big time bounce back year in 2019 when his shoulder is fully healed. Votto seemingly lost his power stroke this season, but still managed to put up an OBP over .400 for the 9th time in 12 career seasons. Yelich’s power came out of nowhere and was well deserving of this prestigious award.


American League Honorable Mentions:

Aaron Judge / Giancarlo Stanton — Yankees OF

Judge: 498 PA, .278/.392/.528, 27 HR, 67 RBI, 149 wRC+, 14 DRS, 5.0 fWAR

MVP Finish: 12th

Votes Received: 2 7th place, 2 10th place

Stanton: 705 PA, .266/.343/.509, 38 HR, 100 RBI, 127 wRC+, 5 DRS, 4.2 fWAR

MVP Finish: 19th

Votes Received: 1 8th place, 1 10th place

Jose Altuve — Astros 2B

599 PA, .316/.386/.451, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 135 wRC+, 1 DRS, 4.9 fWAR

MVP Finish: 14th

Votes Received: 4 9th place, 1 10th place

American League Darkhorse:

Image result for byron buxton

Byron Buxton — Twins CF

94 PA, .156/.183/.200, 0 HR, 4 RBI, -3 wRC+ (Yes), 5 SB, 2 DRS, -0.4 fWAR

MVP Finish: N/A

Votes Received: N/A, probably negative votes

American League Pick:

Mike Trout — Angels CF

608 PA, .312/.460/.628, 39 HR, 79 RBI, 191 wRC+, 24 SB, 8 DRS, 9.8 fWAR

MVP Finish: 2nd

Votes Received: 1 1st, 24 2nd, 2 3rd place, 1 4th place, 2 5th place

Actual AL Winner:

Mookie Betts – Red Sox OF

614 PA, .346/..438/.640, 32 HR, 80 RBI, 185 wRC+, 30 SB, 20 DRS, 10.4 fWAR

MVP Finish: 1st

Votes Received: 28 1st place, 2 2nd place


Just like 2016, the top 2 finishers were Trout and Betts. Trout put up a 9.8 fWAR season and didn’t win, can’t fault that pick at all. The field was so deep this year, players like Alex Bregman and J.D. Martinez weren’t even finalists. My darkhorse pick was about as far off as they come. Buxton struggled, got hurt, then didn’t return to the majors this season. I was very excited for this pick coming into the season, but now it is an embarrassment after the season has ended.


Featured Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

I look forward to doing these again next March! Thanks for reading!

Follow me on Twitter: @Reed_Zahradnik5

Reed Zahradnik

University of Iowa '22. St. Louis Cardinals, 50 feet of crap, everyone else. Follow me on Twitter: @reed_zahradnik5

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