Awards Projector

Last updated: July 8th

The “Awards Projector” seeks to estimate/project who will win a certain reward if the season were to end on “x” date. It consists of MVP, Cy Young, Reliever of the Year, and ROY leaderboards. The system will be updated on a regular basis (at least every other week). Here is a spreadsheet (make sure to open it in Numbers to see the full set of spreadsheets) that I created which contains each players’ specific stats + scores. I highly recommended taking a look at it…

Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/Cy_Young/Reliever_of_the_Year/ROY)

Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers from previous seasons’ awards races were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category. Those coefficients were then used to calculate the awards ratings for this season, as shown in the spreadsheet.

2019

Hitters(minimum: 30 G)

Games played (G)

• Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 90.6
• Overall median: 83

Home runs (HR)

• Average of top ten: 27.2
• Overall median: 13

Runs batted in (RBI)

• Average of top ten: 69
• Overall median: 44

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

• Average of top ten: 1.029
• Overall median: .799

Batting average (AVG)

• Average of top ten: .3269
• Overall median: .268

Stolen bases (SB)

• Average of top ten: 18.3
• Overall median: 3

Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

• Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 11.78
• Overall median: 0.9

*Note: maximum = 5.9

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 20%

OPS: 25%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

AL MVP

No.	Name	Team	MVP Score
1	Mike Trout	Angels	9.08
2	Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	7.98
3	Matt Chapman	Athletics	7.97
4	Alex Bregman	Astros	7.89
5	Rafael Devers	Red Sox	7.82
6	Max Kepler	Twins	7.78
7	DJ LeMahieu	Yankees	7.67
8	Joey Gallo	Rangers	7.49
9	Marcus Semien	Athletics	7.45
10	Yoan Moncada	White Sox	7.39
11	Gleyber Torres	Yankees	7.35
12	Christian Vazquez	Red Sox	7.13
13	Elvis Andrus	Rangers	7.09
14	Carlos Santana	Indians	7.08
15	Justin Verlander	Astros	7.04
15	Gary Sanchez	Yankees	7.04

NL MVP

No.	Name	Team	MVP Score
1	Cody Bellinger	Dodgers	9.76
2	Christian Yelich	Brewers	9.05
3	Nolan Arenado	Rockies	8.53
4	Javier Baez	Cubs	8.34
5	Ketel Marte	Diamondbacks	8.23
6	Peter Alonso	Mets	8.16
7	Josh Bell	Pirates	7.98
8	Eduardo Escobar	Diamondbacks	7.94
9	Trevor Story	Rockies	7.89
10	Ronald Acuna Jr.	Braves	7.87
11	Anthony Rendon	Nationals	7.85
12	Max Muncy	Dodgers	7.79
13	Mike Moustakas	Brewers	7.75
14	Hunter Renfroe	Padres	7.72
15	Yasmani Grandal	Brewers	7.71

Starting Pitchers(minimum: 50 IP if “SP”)

*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G

Innings pitched (IP)

• Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 122.3
• Overall median: 102.2

Strikeouts (SO)

• Average of top ten: 150.5
• Overall median: 95

Earned-run average (ERA)

• Average of top ten: 2.594
• Overall median: 3.87

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

• Average of top ten: 0.976
• Overall median: 1.24

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

Conversion Factor

Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68

AL Cy Young

No.	Name	Team	Cy Young Score
1	Justin Verlander	Astros	10.35
2	Charlie Morton	Rays	9.81
3	Gerrit Cole	Astros	8.94
4	Mike Minor	Rangers	8.47
5	Shane Bieber	Indians	7.68
6	Jose Berrios	Twins	7.52
7	Lucas Giolito	White Sox	7.23
8	Frankie Montas	Athletics	7.16
8	Trevor Bauer	Indians	7.16
10	John Means	Orioles	7.10

NL Cy Young

No.	Name	Team	Cy Young Score
1	Max Scherzer	Nationals	11.26
2	Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	10.83
3	Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	9.33
4	Luis Castillo	Reds	9.10
5	Mike Soroka	Braves	7.69
6	Chris Paddack	Padres	7.64
7	Kirby Yates	Padres	7.58
8	Jacob deGrom	Mets	7.47
9	Josh Hader	Brewers	7.33
10	Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	7.21

Relief Pitchers(minimum: 20 IP)

IP

• Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 51.3
• Overall median: 35.67

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

• Average of top ten: 14.731
• Overall median: 9.30

ERA

• Average of top ten: 1.358
• Overall median: 3.83

WHIP

• Average of top ten: 0.774
• Overall median: 1.27

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

• Average of top ten: 2.099
• Overall median: 1.09

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79

Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72

AL Reliever of the Year

No.	Name	Team	Reliever of the Year Score
1	Liam Hendriks	Athletics	8.85
2	Ryan Pressly	Astros	8.49
3	Shane Greene	Tigers	8.27
4	Ken Giles	Blue Jays	8.19

NL Reliever of the Year

No.	Name	Team	Reliever of the Year Score
1	Kirby Yates	Padres	9.60
2	Josh Hader	Brewers	9.28
3	Scott Oberg	Rockies	8.44
4	Will Smith	Giants	7.92

Rookie of the Year

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…

Games played: 10%

*Note: minimum = 15 games played

OPS: 30%

AVG: 15%

HR: 20%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

*Note: maximum: 5.9

SB: 2.5%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…

IP: 35%

*Note: minimum = 50 IP

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…

IP: 25%

*Note: minimum = 20 IP

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 0.97

Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83

Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70

AL Rookie of the Year

No.	Name	Team	ROY Score
1	John Means	Orioles	6.89
2	Brandon Lowe	Rays	6.66
3	Daniel Vogelbach	Mariners	6.48
4	Michael Chavis	Red Sox	6.11
5	Yordan Alvarez	Astros	6.01

NL Rookie of the Year

No.	Name	Team	ROY Score
1	Pete Alonso	Mets	8.23
2	Mike Soroka	Braves	7.46
3	Chris Paddack	Padres	7.41
4	Fernando Tatis Jr.	Padres	6.99
5	Alex Verdugo	Dodgers	6.53

2019

Hitters (minimum: 30 G)

Games played (G)

• Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 71.6
• Overall median: 66

Home runs (HR)

• Average of top ten: 21
• Overall median: 10

Runs batted in (RBI)

• Average of top ten: 56.1
• Overall median: 34

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

• Average of top ten: 1.0428
• Overall median: .799

Batting average (AVG)

• Average of top ten: .3313
• Overall median: .266

Stolen bases (SB)

• Average of top ten: 15
• Overall median: 3

Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

• Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 9.45
• Overall median: 0.4

*Note: maximum = 4.5

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 20%

OPS: 25%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

AL MVP

No.	Name	Team	MVP Score
1	Mike Trout	Angels	8.42
2	Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	8.05
3	Alex Bregman	Astros	8.03
4	Max Kepler	Twins	7.91
5	Joey Gallo	Rangers	7.83
6	Matt Chapman	Athletics	7.53
7	George Springer	Astros	7.40
8	Eddie Rosario	Twins	7.37
9	Gleyber Torres	Yankees	7.35
9	Rafael Devers	Red Sox	7.35
11	Brandon Lowe	Rays	7.33
11	Tommy La Stella	Angels	7.33
13	Marcus Semien	Athletics	7.26
14	Adalberto Mondesi	Royals	7.26
15	Justin Verlander	Tigers	7.24

NL MVP

No.	Name	Team	MVP Score
1	Cody Bellinger	Dodgers	9.80
2	Christian Yelich	Brewers	9.50
3	Nolan Arenado	Rockies	8.66
4	Ketel Marte	Diamondbacks	8.48
5	Trevor Story	Rockies	8.38
6	Ronald Acuna Jr.	Braves	8.10
7	Eduardo Escobar	Diamondbacks	8.09
7	Hunter Renfroe	Padres	8.09
9	Mike Moustakas	Brewers	8.08
10	Javier Baez	Cubs	8.02
11	Pete Alonso	Mets	7.99
12	Anthony Rendon	Nationals	7.97
13	Josh Bell	Pirates	7.93
14	Yasmani Grandal	Brewers	7.75
15	Max Muncy	Dodgers	7.73

Starting Pitchers (minimum: 50 IP)

*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G 

Innings pitched (IP)

• Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 98.8
• Overall median: 81.67

Strikeouts (SO)

• Average of top ten: 119.4
• Overall median: 77

Earned-run average (ERA)

• Average of top ten: 2.144
• Overall median: 3.87

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

• Average of top ten: 0.907
• Overall median: 1.22

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

Conversion Factor

Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68

AL Cy Young

No.	Name	Team	Cy Young Score
1	Justin Verlander	Astros	10.64
2	Lucas Giolito	White Sox	8.54
3	Charlie Morton	Rays	8.41
4	Jake Odorizzi	Twins	7.85
5	Chris Sale	Red Sox	7.66
6	Gerrit Cole	Astros	7.53
7	Mike Minor	Rangers	7.45
8	Trevor Bauer	Indians	7.43
9	Brad Hand	Indians	7.33
10	Ryan Pressly	Astros	7.04

NL Cy Young

No.	Name	Team	Cy Young Score
1	Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	10.77
2	Max Scherzer	Nationals	8.57
3	Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	8.54
4	Luis Castillo	Reds	7.94
5	Mike Soroka	Braves	7.77
6	Walker Buehler	Dodgers	7.28
7	Kirby Yates	Padres	7.26
8	Josh Hader	Brewers	7.18
9	Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	6.74
10	John Gant	Cardinals	6.34

Relief Pitchers (minimum: 20 IP)

IP

• Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 41.33
• Overall median: 28.67

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

• Average of top ten: 15.002
• Overall median: 9.30

ERA

• Average of top ten: 1.155
• Overall median: 3.70

WHIP

• Average of top ten: 0.751
• Overall median: 1.26

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

• Average of top ten: 2.144
• Overall median: 1.12

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79

Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72

AL Reliever of the Year

No.	Name	Team	Reliever of the Year Score
1	Brad Hand	Indians	9.27
2	Ryan Pressly	Astros	8.91
3	Shane Greene	Tigers	8.37
4	Ken Giles	Blue Jays	8.20
5	Aroldis Chapman	Yankees	7.82

NL Reliever of the Year

No.	Name	Team	Reliever of the Year Score
1	Kirby Yates	Padres	9.18
2	Josh Hader	Brewers	9.09
3	John Gant	Cardinals	8.03
4	Will Smith	Giants	7.21
5	Amir Garrett	Reds	7.18

Rookie of the Year

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…

Games played: 10%

*Note: minimum = 30 games played

OPS: 30%

AVG: 15%

HR: 20%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 1.16

Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83

Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70

AL Rookie of the Year

No.	Name	Team	ROY Score
1	Brandon Lowe	Rays	7.25
2	John Means	Orioles	6.72
3	Daniel Vogelbach	Mariners	6.59
4	Michael Chavis	Red Sox	6.11
5	Spencer Turnbull	Tigers	5.66

NL Rookie of the Year

No.	Name	Team	ROY Score
1	Mike Soroka	Braves	9.00
2	Pete Alonso	Mets	8.02
3	Chris Paddack	Padres	7.25
4	Fernando Tatis Jr.	Padres	6.40
5	Carson Kelly	Diamondbacks	6.16