Analysis

Awards Projector

Last updated: July 8th

The “Awards Projector” seeks to estimate/project who will win a certain reward if the season were to end on “x” date. It consists of MVP, Cy Young, Reliever of the Year, and ROY leaderboards. The system will be updated on a regular basis (at least every other week). Here is a spreadsheet (make sure to open it in Numbers to see the full set of spreadsheets) that I created which contains each players’ specific stats + scores. I highly recommended taking a look at it…

Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/Cy_Young/Reliever_of_the_Year/ROY)

Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers from previous seasons’ awards races were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category. Those coefficients were then used to calculate the awards ratings for this season, as shown in the spreadsheet.

2019

Hitters(minimum: 30 G)

Games played (G)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 90.6
  • Overall median: 83

Home runs (HR)

  • Average of top ten: 27.2
  • Overall median: 13

Runs batted in (RBI)

  • Average of top ten: 69
  • Overall median: 44

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

  • Average of top ten: 1.029
  • Overall median: .799

Batting average (AVG)

  • Average of top ten: .3269
  • Overall median: .268

Stolen bases (SB)

  • Average of top ten: 18.3
  • Overall median: 3

Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 11.78
  • Overall median: 0.9

*Note: maximum = 5.9

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 20%

OPS: 25%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

AL MVP

No.NameTeamMVP Score
1Mike TroutAngels9.08
2Xander BogaertsRed Sox7.98
3Matt ChapmanAthletics7.97
4Alex BregmanAstros7.89
5Rafael DeversRed Sox7.82
6Max KeplerTwins7.78
7DJ LeMahieuYankees7.67
8Joey GalloRangers7.49
9Marcus SemienAthletics7.45
10Yoan MoncadaWhite Sox7.39
11Gleyber TorresYankees7.35
12Christian VazquezRed Sox7.13
13Elvis AndrusRangers7.09
14Carlos SantanaIndians7.08
15Justin VerlanderAstros7.04
15Gary SanchezYankees7.04

NL MVP

No.NameTeamMVP Score
1Cody BellingerDodgers9.76
2Christian YelichBrewers9.05
3Nolan ArenadoRockies8.53
4Javier BaezCubs8.34
5Ketel MarteDiamondbacks8.23
6Peter AlonsoMets8.16
7Josh BellPirates7.98
8Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks7.94
9Trevor StoryRockies7.89
10Ronald Acuna Jr.Braves7.87
11Anthony RendonNationals7.85
12Max MuncyDodgers7.79
13Mike MoustakasBrewers7.75
14Hunter RenfroePadres7.72
15Yasmani GrandalBrewers7.71

Starting Pitchers(minimum: 50 IP if “SP”)

*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G

Innings pitched (IP)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 122.3
  • Overall median: 102.2

Strikeouts (SO)

  • Average of top ten: 150.5
  • Overall median: 95

Earned-run average (ERA)

  • Average of top ten: 2.594
  • Overall median: 3.87

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

  • Average of top ten: 0.976
  • Overall median: 1.24

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

Conversion Factor

Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68

AL Cy Young

No.NameTeam Cy Young Score
1Justin VerlanderAstros10.35
2Charlie MortonRays9.81
3Gerrit ColeAstros8.94
4Mike MinorRangers8.47
5Shane BieberIndians7.68
6Jose BerriosTwins7.52
7Lucas GiolitoWhite Sox7.23
8Frankie MontasAthletics7.16
8Trevor BauerIndians7.16
10John MeansOrioles7.10

NL Cy Young

No.NameTeam Cy Young Score
1Max ScherzerNationals11.26
2Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers10.83
3Zack GreinkeDiamondbacks9.33
4Luis CastilloReds9.10
5Mike SorokaBraves7.69
6Chris PaddackPadres7.64
7Kirby YatesPadres7.58
8Jacob deGromMets7.47
9Josh HaderBrewers7.33
10Stephen StrasburgNationals7.21

Relief Pitchers(minimum: 20 IP)

IP

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 51.3
  • Overall median: 35.67

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

  • Average of top ten: 14.731
  • Overall median: 9.30

ERA

  • Average of top ten: 1.358
  • Overall median: 3.83

WHIP

  • Average of top ten: 0.774
  • Overall median: 1.27

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten: 2.099
  • Overall median: 1.09

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79

Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72

AL Reliever of the Year

No.NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
1Liam HendriksAthletics8.85
2Ryan PresslyAstros8.49
3Shane GreeneTigers8.27
4Ken GilesBlue Jays8.19

NL Reliever of the Year

No.NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
1Kirby YatesPadres9.60
2Josh HaderBrewers9.28
3Scott ObergRockies8.44
4Will SmithGiants7.92

Rookie of the Year

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…

Games played: 10%

*Note: minimum = 15 games played

OPS: 30%

AVG: 15%

HR: 20%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

*Note: maximum: 5.9

SB: 2.5%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…

IP: 35%

*Note: minimum = 50 IP

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…

IP: 25%

*Note: minimum = 20 IP

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 0.97

Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83

Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70

AL Rookie of the Year

No.NameTeamROY Score
1John MeansOrioles6.89
2Brandon LoweRays6.66
3Daniel VogelbachMariners6.48
4Michael ChavisRed Sox6.11
5Yordan AlvarezAstros6.01

NL Rookie of the Year

No.NameTeamROY Score
1Pete AlonsoMets8.23
2Mike SorokaBraves7.46
3Chris PaddackPadres7.41
4Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres6.99
5Alex VerdugoDodgers6.53

2019

Hitters (minimum: 30 G)

Games played (G)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 71.6
  • Overall median: 66

Home runs (HR)

  • Average of top ten: 21
  • Overall median: 10

Runs batted in (RBI)

  • Average of top ten: 56.1
  • Overall median: 34

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

  • Average of top ten: 1.0428
  • Overall median: .799

Batting average (AVG)

  • Average of top ten: .3313
  • Overall median: .266

Stolen bases (SB)

  • Average of top ten: 15
  • Overall median: 3

Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 9.45
  • Overall median: 0.4

*Note: maximum = 4.5

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 20%

OPS: 25%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

AL MVP

No.NameTeamMVP Score
1Mike TroutAngels8.42
2Xander BogaertsRed Sox8.05
3Alex BregmanAstros8.03
4Max KeplerTwins7.91
5Joey GalloRangers7.83
6Matt ChapmanAthletics7.53
7George SpringerAstros7.40
8Eddie RosarioTwins7.37
9Gleyber TorresYankees7.35
9Rafael DeversRed Sox7.35
11Brandon LoweRays7.33
11Tommy La StellaAngels7.33
13Marcus SemienAthletics7.26
14Adalberto MondesiRoyals7.26
15Justin VerlanderTigers7.24

NL MVP

No.NameTeamMVP Score
1Cody BellingerDodgers9.80
2Christian YelichBrewers9.50
3Nolan ArenadoRockies8.66
4Ketel MarteDiamondbacks8.48
5Trevor StoryRockies8.38
6Ronald Acuna Jr.Braves8.10
7Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks8.09
7Hunter RenfroePadres8.09
9Mike MoustakasBrewers8.08
10Javier BaezCubs8.02
11Pete AlonsoMets7.99
12Anthony RendonNationals7.97
13Josh BellPirates7.93
14Yasmani GrandalBrewers7.75
15Max MuncyDodgers7.73

Starting Pitchers (minimum: 50 IP)

*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G 

Innings pitched (IP)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 98.8
  • Overall median: 81.67

Strikeouts (SO)

  • Average of top ten: 119.4
  • Overall median: 77

Earned-run average (ERA)

  • Average of top ten: 2.144
  • Overall median: 3.87

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

  • Average of top ten: 0.907
  • Overall median: 1.22

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

Conversion Factor

Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68

AL Cy Young

No.NameTeam Cy Young Score
1Justin VerlanderAstros10.64
2Lucas GiolitoWhite Sox8.54
3Charlie MortonRays8.41
4Jake OdorizziTwins7.85
5Chris SaleRed Sox7.66
6Gerrit ColeAstros7.53
7Mike MinorRangers7.45
8Trevor BauerIndians7.43
9Brad HandIndians7.33
10Ryan PresslyAstros7.04

NL Cy Young

No.NameTeamCy Young Score
1Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers10.77
2Max ScherzerNationals8.57
3Zack GreinkeDiamondbacks8.54
4Luis CastilloReds7.94
5Mike SorokaBraves7.77
6Walker BuehlerDodgers7.28
7Kirby YatesPadres7.26
8Josh HaderBrewers7.18
9Stephen StrasburgNationals6.74
10John GantCardinals 6.34

Relief Pitchers (minimum: 20 IP)

IP

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 41.33
  • Overall median: 28.67

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

  • Average of top ten: 15.002
  • Overall median: 9.30

ERA

  • Average of top ten: 1.155
  • Overall median: 3.70

WHIP

  • Average of top ten: 0.751
  • Overall median: 1.26

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten: 2.144
  • Overall median: 1.12

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79

Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72

AL Reliever of the Year

No.NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
1Brad HandIndians9.27
2Ryan PresslyAstros8.91
3Shane GreeneTigers8.37
4Ken GilesBlue Jays8.20
5Aroldis ChapmanYankees7.82

NL Reliever of the Year

No.NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
1Kirby Yates Padres9.18
2Josh HaderBrewers9.09
3John GantCardinals8.03
4Will SmithGiants7.21
5Amir GarrettReds7.18

Rookie of the Year

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…

Games played: 10%

*Note: minimum = 30 games played

OPS: 30%

AVG: 15%

HR: 20%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 1.16

Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83

Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70

AL Rookie of the Year

No.NameTeamROY Score
1Brandon LoweRays7.25
2John MeansOrioles6.72
3Daniel VogelbachMariners6.59
4Michael ChavisRed Sox6.11
5Spencer TurnbullTigers5.66

NL Rookie of the Year

No.NameTeamROY Score
1Mike SorokaBraves9.00
2Pete AlonsoMets8.02
3Chris PaddackPadres7.25
4Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres6.40
5Carson KellyDiamondbacks6.16
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