
Last updated: July 8th
The “Awards Projector” seeks to estimate/project who will win a certain reward if the season were to end on “x” date. It consists of MVP, Cy Young, Reliever of the Year, and ROY leaderboards. The system will be updated on a regular basis (at least every other week). Here is a spreadsheet (make sure to open it in Numbers to see the full set of spreadsheets) that I created which contains each players’ specific stats + scores. I highly recommended taking a look at it…
Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/Cy_Young/Reliever_of_the_Year/ROY)
Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers from previous seasons’ awards races were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category. Those coefficients were then used to calculate the awards ratings for this season, as shown in the spreadsheet.
2019
Hitters(minimum: 30 G)
Games played (G)
- Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 90.6
- Overall median: 83
Home runs (HR)
- Average of top ten: 27.2
- Overall median: 13
Runs batted in (RBI)
- Average of top ten: 69
- Overall median: 44
On-base plus slugging (OPS)
- Average of top ten: 1.029
- Overall median: .799
Batting average (AVG)
- Average of top ten: .3269
- Overall median: .268
Stolen bases (SB)
- Average of top ten: 18.3
- Overall median: 3
Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)
- Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 11.78
- Overall median: 0.9
*Note: maximum = 5.9
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…
Games played: 20%
OPS: 25%
AVG: 15%
HR: 15%
RBI: 12.5%
Def: 10%
SB: 2.5%
AL MVP
No. | Name | Team | MVP Score |
1 | Mike Trout | Angels | 9.08 |
2 | Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 7.98 |
3 | Matt Chapman | Athletics | 7.97 |
4 | Alex Bregman | Astros | 7.89 |
5 | Rafael Devers | Red Sox | 7.82 |
6 | Max Kepler | Twins | 7.78 |
7 | DJ LeMahieu | Yankees | 7.67 |
8 | Joey Gallo | Rangers | 7.49 |
9 | Marcus Semien | Athletics | 7.45 |
10 | Yoan Moncada | White Sox | 7.39 |
11 | Gleyber Torres | Yankees | 7.35 |
12 | Christian Vazquez | Red Sox | 7.13 |
13 | Elvis Andrus | Rangers | 7.09 |
14 | Carlos Santana | Indians | 7.08 |
15 | Justin Verlander | Astros | 7.04 |
15 | Gary Sanchez | Yankees | 7.04 |
NL MVP
No. | Name | Team | MVP Score |
1 | Cody Bellinger | Dodgers | 9.76 |
2 | Christian Yelich | Brewers | 9.05 |
3 | Nolan Arenado | Rockies | 8.53 |
4 | Javier Baez | Cubs | 8.34 |
5 | Ketel Marte | Diamondbacks | 8.23 |
6 | Peter Alonso | Mets | 8.16 |
7 | Josh Bell | Pirates | 7.98 |
8 | Eduardo Escobar | Diamondbacks | 7.94 |
9 | Trevor Story | Rockies | 7.89 |
10 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | 7.87 |
11 | Anthony Rendon | Nationals | 7.85 |
12 | Max Muncy | Dodgers | 7.79 |
13 | Mike Moustakas | Brewers | 7.75 |
14 | Hunter Renfroe | Padres | 7.72 |
15 | Yasmani Grandal | Brewers | 7.71 |
Starting Pitchers(minimum: 50 IP if “SP”)
*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G
Innings pitched (IP)
- Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 122.3
- Overall median: 102.2
Strikeouts (SO)
- Average of top ten: 150.5
- Overall median: 95
Earned-run average (ERA)
- Average of top ten: 2.594
- Overall median: 3.87
Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)
- Average of top ten: 0.976
- Overall median: 1.24
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…
IP: 35%
SO: 25%
ERA: 25%
WHIP: 15%
Conversion Factor
Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68
AL Cy Young
No. | Name | Team | Cy Young Score |
1 | Justin Verlander | Astros | 10.35 |
2 | Charlie Morton | Rays | 9.81 |
3 | Gerrit Cole | Astros | 8.94 |
4 | Mike Minor | Rangers | 8.47 |
5 | Shane Bieber | Indians | 7.68 |
6 | Jose Berrios | Twins | 7.52 |
7 | Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 7.23 |
8 | Frankie Montas | Athletics | 7.16 |
8 | Trevor Bauer | Indians | 7.16 |
10 | John Means | Orioles | 7.10 |
NL Cy Young
No. | Name | Team | Cy Young Score |
1 | Max Scherzer | Nationals | 11.26 |
2 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 10.83 |
3 | Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 9.33 |
4 | Luis Castillo | Reds | 9.10 |
5 | Mike Soroka | Braves | 7.69 |
6 | Chris Paddack | Padres | 7.64 |
7 | Kirby Yates | Padres | 7.58 |
8 | Jacob deGrom | Mets | 7.47 |
9 | Josh Hader | Brewers | 7.33 |
10 | Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 7.21 |
Relief Pitchers(minimum: 20 IP)
IP
- Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 51.3
- Overall median: 35.67
Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)
- Average of top ten: 14.731
- Overall median: 9.30
ERA
- Average of top ten: 1.358
- Overall median: 3.83
WHIP
- Average of top ten: 0.774
- Overall median: 1.27
pLI (according to FanGraphs)
- Average of top ten: 2.099
- Overall median: 1.09
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…
IP: 25%
K/9: 20%
ERA: 30%
WHIP: 15%
pLI: 10%
Conversion Factors
Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79
Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72
AL Reliever of the Year
No. | Name | Team | Reliever of the Year Score |
1 | Liam Hendriks | Athletics | 8.85 |
2 | Ryan Pressly | Astros | 8.49 |
3 | Shane Greene | Tigers | 8.27 |
4 | Ken Giles | Blue Jays | 8.19 |
NL Reliever of the Year
No. | Name | Team | Reliever of the Year Score |
1 | Kirby Yates | Padres | 9.60 |
2 | Josh Hader | Brewers | 9.28 |
3 | Scott Oberg | Rockies | 8.44 |
4 | Will Smith | Giants | 7.92 |
Rookie of the Year
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…
Games played: 10%
*Note: minimum = 15 games played
OPS: 30%
AVG: 15%
HR: 20%
RBI: 12.5%
Def: 10%
*Note: maximum: 5.9
SB: 2.5%
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…
IP: 35%
*Note: minimum = 50 IP
SO: 25%
ERA: 25%
WHIP: 15%
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…
IP: 25%
*Note: minimum = 20 IP
K/9: 20%
ERA: 30%
WHIP: 15%
pLI: 10%
Conversion Factors
Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 0.97
Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83
Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70
AL Rookie of the Year
No. | Name | Team | ROY Score |
1 | John Means | Orioles | 6.89 |
2 | Brandon Lowe | Rays | 6.66 |
3 | Daniel Vogelbach | Mariners | 6.48 |
4 | Michael Chavis | Red Sox | 6.11 |
5 | Yordan Alvarez | Astros | 6.01 |
NL Rookie of the Year
No. | Name | Team | ROY Score |
1 | Pete Alonso | Mets | 8.23 |
2 | Mike Soroka | Braves | 7.46 |
3 | Chris Paddack | Padres | 7.41 |
4 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | 6.99 |
5 | Alex Verdugo | Dodgers | 6.53 |
2019
Hitters (minimum: 30 G)
Games played (G)
- Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 71.6
- Overall median: 66
Home runs (HR)
- Average of top ten: 21
- Overall median: 10
Runs batted in (RBI)
- Average of top ten: 56.1
- Overall median: 34
On-base plus slugging (OPS)
- Average of top ten: 1.0428
- Overall median: .799
Batting average (AVG)
- Average of top ten: .3313
- Overall median: .266
Stolen bases (SB)
- Average of top ten: 15
- Overall median: 3
Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)
- Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 9.45
- Overall median: 0.4
*Note: maximum = 4.5
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…
Games played: 20%
OPS: 25%
AVG: 15%
HR: 15%
RBI: 12.5%
Def: 10%
SB: 2.5%
AL MVP
No. | Name | Team | MVP Score |
1 | Mike Trout | Angels | 8.42 |
2 | Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 8.05 |
3 | Alex Bregman | Astros | 8.03 |
4 | Max Kepler | Twins | 7.91 |
5 | Joey Gallo | Rangers | 7.83 |
6 | Matt Chapman | Athletics | 7.53 |
7 | George Springer | Astros | 7.40 |
8 | Eddie Rosario | Twins | 7.37 |
9 | Gleyber Torres | Yankees | 7.35 |
9 | Rafael Devers | Red Sox | 7.35 |
11 | Brandon Lowe | Rays | 7.33 |
11 | Tommy La Stella | Angels | 7.33 |
13 | Marcus Semien | Athletics | 7.26 |
14 | Adalberto Mondesi | Royals | 7.26 |
15 | Justin Verlander | Tigers | 7.24 |
NL MVP
No. | Name | Team | MVP Score |
1 | Cody Bellinger | Dodgers | 9.80 |
2 | Christian Yelich | Brewers | 9.50 |
3 | Nolan Arenado | Rockies | 8.66 |
4 | Ketel Marte | Diamondbacks | 8.48 |
5 | Trevor Story | Rockies | 8.38 |
6 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | 8.10 |
7 | Eduardo Escobar | Diamondbacks | 8.09 |
7 | Hunter Renfroe | Padres | 8.09 |
9 | Mike Moustakas | Brewers | 8.08 |
10 | Javier Baez | Cubs | 8.02 |
11 | Pete Alonso | Mets | 7.99 |
12 | Anthony Rendon | Nationals | 7.97 |
13 | Josh Bell | Pirates | 7.93 |
14 | Yasmani Grandal | Brewers | 7.75 |
15 | Max Muncy | Dodgers | 7.73 |
Starting Pitchers (minimum: 50 IP)
*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G
Innings pitched (IP)
- Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 98.8
- Overall median: 81.67
Strikeouts (SO)
- Average of top ten: 119.4
- Overall median: 77
Earned-run average (ERA)
- Average of top ten: 2.144
- Overall median: 3.87
Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)
- Average of top ten: 0.907
- Overall median: 1.22
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…
IP: 35%
SO: 25%
ERA: 25%
WHIP: 15%
Conversion Factor
Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68
AL Cy Young
No. | Name | Team | Cy Young Score |
1 | Justin Verlander | Astros | 10.64 |
2 | Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 8.54 |
3 | Charlie Morton | Rays | 8.41 |
4 | Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 7.85 |
5 | Chris Sale | Red Sox | 7.66 |
6 | Gerrit Cole | Astros | 7.53 |
7 | Mike Minor | Rangers | 7.45 |
8 | Trevor Bauer | Indians | 7.43 |
9 | Brad Hand | Indians | 7.33 |
10 | Ryan Pressly | Astros | 7.04 |
NL Cy Young
No. | Name | Team | Cy Young Score |
1 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 10.77 |
2 | Max Scherzer | Nationals | 8.57 |
3 | Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 8.54 |
4 | Luis Castillo | Reds | 7.94 |
5 | Mike Soroka | Braves | 7.77 |
6 | Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 7.28 |
7 | Kirby Yates | Padres | 7.26 |
8 | Josh Hader | Brewers | 7.18 |
9 | Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 6.74 |
10 | John Gant | Cardinals | 6.34 |
Relief Pitchers (minimum: 20 IP)
IP
- Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 41.33
- Overall median: 28.67
Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)
- Average of top ten: 15.002
- Overall median: 9.30
ERA
- Average of top ten: 1.155
- Overall median: 3.70
WHIP
- Average of top ten: 0.751
- Overall median: 1.26
pLI (according to FanGraphs)
- Average of top ten: 2.144
- Overall median: 1.12
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…
IP: 25%
K/9: 20%
ERA: 30%
WHIP: 15%
pLI: 10%
Conversion Factors
Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79
Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72
AL Reliever of the Year
No. | Name | Team | Reliever of the Year Score |
1 | Brad Hand | Indians | 9.27 |
2 | Ryan Pressly | Astros | 8.91 |
3 | Shane Greene | Tigers | 8.37 |
4 | Ken Giles | Blue Jays | 8.20 |
5 | Aroldis Chapman | Yankees | 7.82 |
NL Reliever of the Year
No. | Name | Team | Reliever of the Year Score |
1 | Kirby Yates | Padres | 9.18 |
2 | Josh Hader | Brewers | 9.09 |
3 | John Gant | Cardinals | 8.03 |
4 | Will Smith | Giants | 7.21 |
5 | Amir Garrett | Reds | 7.18 |
Rookie of the Year
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…
Games played: 10%
*Note: minimum = 30 games played
OPS: 30%
AVG: 15%
HR: 20%
RBI: 12.5%
Def: 10%
SB: 2.5%
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…
IP: 35%
SO: 25%
ERA: 25%
WHIP: 15%
The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…
IP: 25%
K/9: 20%
ERA: 30%
WHIP: 15%
pLI: 10%
Conversion Factors
Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 1.16
Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83
Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70
AL Rookie of the Year
No. | Name | Team | ROY Score |
1 | Brandon Lowe | Rays | 7.25 |
2 | John Means | Orioles | 6.72 |
3 | Daniel Vogelbach | Mariners | 6.59 |
4 | Michael Chavis | Red Sox | 6.11 |
5 | Spencer Turnbull | Tigers | 5.66 |
NL Rookie of the Year
No. | Name | Team | ROY Score |
1 | Mike Soroka | Braves | 9.00 |
2 | Pete Alonso | Mets | 8.02 |
3 | Chris Paddack | Padres | 7.25 |
4 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | 6.40 |
5 | Carson Kelly | Diamondbacks | 6.16 |