2021 Down Ballot Battles: NL Rookie of the Year

AL MVP	AL Cy Young	AL Rookie of the Year
NL MVP	NL Cy Young	NL Rookie of the Year

Introduction

When people talk about award races at the end of every MLB season, they tend to focus on the top few candidates, specifically who should win. That’s more than understandable, as that [the winner] is the most important thing in a race. Yet ballots aren’t cast with just the top name listed. No, instead awards are decided on a points system where up to ten candidates are ranked, and more points are given for a higher place vote. With this being the case, more than the top candidates should be debated. That’s why I’m here.

I have, in my many spreadsheets, award races. Using an amalgam of stats from different sources, I then calculated my personalized version of WAR (hsWAR) for far too many candidates for each award. When voting for today’s award, NL Rookie of the Year, the BBWAA voters place 3 names on their ballot. To that end, I will list the top five candidates by hsWAR, as well as every subsequent candidate within the margin of error (1.00 hsWAR) of the 3rd place finisher. I’ll enumerate my final ballot decisions at the end of this article, but not before discussion of the down ballot names.

The Candidates

Rank	Name	hsWAR	hsRAA
1	Trevor Rogers	4.16	21.632
2	Jonathan India	3.47	12.434
3	Dylan Carlson	2.37	2.833
4	Ian Anderson	2.25	4.915
5	Tyler Stephenson	2.25	8.255
6	Patrick Wisdom	2.04	7.104
7	Ke’Bryan Hayes	2.01	6.292
8	Edmundo Sosa	1.92	7.522
9	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	1.85	1.429
10	David Bednar	1.68	12.099
11	Frank Schwindel	1.62	6.801
12	Anthony Bender	1.50	9.456

The Favorites

By my math, Rogers is pretty clearly the favorite. By betting odds, it’s easily India. Either way, these are obviously the top 2 candidates. They will come in first and second, likely with India winning due to his playing more consistently throughout the season. He would certainly be a deserving winner, but the inning-for-inning excellence of Rogers should keep him in the minds of every voter when it comes to first place consideration.

The Rest

Much like the AL, relievers lead the way when it comes to down-ballot candidates. Both Bednar and Bender were incredible this season, and pitched enough innings to keep pace with a lackluster field. The other, bigger names on this list, including Anderson, Carlson, and Hayes, produced similar value to the relievers, but got most of it from playing time rather than performance. They’re all fine choices for the third slot due to their blatant ceilings of talent, but the relievers were the best performers in 2021, especially Bednar.

The Decision

I didn’t struggle at all with this race. The first two were clear, as was their order. Then Bednar ran away with the last vote. I do wish I had room for Bender, but really this was an easy award ballot.